Mesoscale Discussion 0216
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0857 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...

   Valid 160157Z - 160400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues.

   SUMMARY...A damaging wind and tornado threat persist across parts of
   eastern Middle Tennessee, but is expected to continue waning heading
   into the late evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection across eastern TN has
   shown signs of gradual weakening with decreasing lightning counts,
   and warming cloud top temperatures. However, convection that remains
   across the area continues to show signs of mid-level rotation, and
   the overall convective environment remains very strongly sheared
   within a broad, northward-lifting warm frontal zone. The kinematic
   environment was sampled well by the 00z FFC sounding, though
   prolonged convective overturning across much of TN is limiting
   buoyancy considerably more than was is depicted by the observed
   sounding. Although a localized severe threat continues for the
   short-term (next hour or so), continued diabatic cooling heading
   into the late evening should result in gradually diminishing severe
   potential.

   ..Moore.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX...

   LAT...LON   35358393 35138402 35018425 35018488 34998540 35138551
               35358549 35518543 36338491 36488472 36528450 36508417
               36418387 36208381 35358393