Mesoscale Discussion 2179
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

   Areas affected...Southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020330Z - 020530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Hail may accompany the strongest storms across the
   southern High Plains tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Low-latitude short-wave trough is evident in
   water-vapor imagery over eastern AZ, extending into northern Mexico.
   This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Rockies and
   LLJ appears to be responding to this short wave. 1km wind field is
   increasing across western TX into the TX South Plains. This is
   forcing higher PW air mass into southeast NM where boundary-layer
   upslope flow is contributing to recent uptick in convection,
   especially over Eddy County NM. Several discrete updrafts have
   evolved across southeast NM, and more recently as far north as CVS.
   With time, additional storms should develop along this corridor as
   low-level warm advection will be focused into this portion of the
   southern Plains. At this time it appears hail is the primary concern
   and isolated severe hail is possible. However, hail coverage/size is
   not currently expected to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will
   continue to monitor this region.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 11/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32560480 34970380 34880255 32210330 32560480