Mesoscale Discussion 2149
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

   Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191935Z - 192200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms are expected as convective coverage
   increases this afternoon and well into the evening. Sporadic large
   hail as well as a couple brief tornadoes will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across the
   region, east of the slow-moving upper low. A north-south oriented
   band of rain and storms has already formed near the 105.5 W
   meridian, with brief indications of small hail thus far.

   Continued heating will lead to further destabilization over the next
   few hours with upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing with 40-50 kt
   deep-layer shear. In addition, low-level southeasterlies are
   enhancing low-level shear with 0-1 KM SRH values around 100 m2/s2,
   sufficient for a brief tornado. 

   As such, the risk of at least isolated severe storms will increase
   this afternoon, and a watch may at least be considered as trends
   dictate.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 10/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32690596 33830563 34700546 35160534 35470521 35880451
               35900380 35640353 35150342 34160363 32680429 32380476
               32230550 32290579 32500593 32690596