Mesoscale Discussion 1686
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

   Areas affected...Southeastern Georgia into southern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201805Z - 202000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will intensify along a differential heating
   boundary and along the sea breeze. Isolated damaging winds are the
   primary hazard. Should clustering occur a locally greater wind
   damage threat would be possible. A small severe thunderstorm watch
   would be considered if that occurs.

   DISCUSSION...Though cloud cover has generally eroded across northern
   Georgia/Upstate South Carolina, temperatures have remained cooler in
   those locations thus far. This has set up a differential heating
   boundary from central Georgia into southern South Carolina. Cumulus
   development is ongoing along this boundary as well as the sea
   breeze. Thunderstorms have already initiated in central/east-central
   Georgia and have been deepening over the last hour per MRMS CAPPI
   data. The observed morning sounding from Charleston showed modestly
   steeper mid-level lapse rates than other regional soundings (6-6.5
   C/km). Portions of southeast Georgia into southern South Carolina
   should have some of the better overlap of buoyancy and effective
   shear given the enhanced mid-level winds over the region. As storms
   continue to deepen/intensify with continued heating, the expectation
   is for marginally organized multicells to be capable of sporadic
   wind damage. Should clustering occur, a locally greater wind damage
   threat would be possible.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 07/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32128363 32698339 33508112 33058019 32418060 31778120
               31248161 30638209 30588247 31688358 32128363