Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 17, 2025
Updated: Fri Jan 17 09:44:03 UTC 2025
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jan 20, 2025 - Tue, Jan 21, 2025
D7
Thu, Jan 23, 2025 - Fri, Jan 24, 2025
D5
Tue, Jan 21, 2025 - Wed, Jan 22, 2025
D8
Fri, Jan 24, 2025 - Sat, Jan 25, 2025
D6
Wed, Jan 22, 2025 - Thu, Jan 23, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170942
SPC AC 170942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame,
with generally cool and stable conditions persisting.
The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS
especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications
are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into
Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of
the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of
appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land.
..Jewell.. 01/17/2025
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