Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 14, 2025
Updated: Tue Jan 14 08:58:03 UTC 2025
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jan 17, 2025 - Sat, Jan 18, 2025
D7
Mon, Jan 20, 2025 - Tue, Jan 21, 2025
D5
Sat, Jan 18, 2025 - Sun, Jan 19, 2025
D8
Tue, Jan 21, 2025 - Wed, Jan 22, 2025
D6
Sun, Jan 19, 2025 - Mon, Jan 20, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140856
SPC AC 140856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat
from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast
vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the
southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper
large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will
deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS
Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this
system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across
east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are
expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into
southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the
upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur
overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with
only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong,
supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic
profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong
storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central
Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken
and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar
lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri
indicate severe potential will likely remain limited.
Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle
across much of the country during the second half of the forecast
period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week.
..Leitman.. 01/14/2025
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