Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 13, 2025
Updated: Mon Jan 13 09:00:03 UTC 2025
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jan 16, 2025 - Fri, Jan 17, 2025
D7
Sun, Jan 19, 2025 - Mon, Jan 20, 2025
D5
Fri, Jan 17, 2025 - Sat, Jan 18, 2025
D8
Mon, Jan 20, 2025 - Tue, Jan 21, 2025
D6
Sat, Jan 18, 2025 - Sun, Jan 19, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 130858
SPC AC 130858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity
on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the
Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High
Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern
portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf
moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu.
Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading
into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper
trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on
Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However,
forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong
mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the
Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High
Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward
transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and
central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in
the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance
is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite.
Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended
lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe
potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast
Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to
delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time.
By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and
deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an
arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very
cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week.
..Leitman.. 01/13/2025
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