Nov 21, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 21 07:48:41 UTC 2024 (20241121 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20241121 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20241121 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 210748

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a
   departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of
   west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge
   will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND,
   and continued height falls across the West.

   The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response
   to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily
   away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the
   entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not
   expected.

   ..Jewell.. 11/21/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z