SPC AC 150721

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN
   MO/EASTERN NE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
   are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern
   Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa.

   ...Synopsis...
   A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave
   impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie
   Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface
   cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon,
   with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into
   MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great
   Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the
   baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night.

   ...IA/MO/NE...
   Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm
   front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing
   at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity
   may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for
   isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated
   in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm
   potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in
   the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away
   from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture
   return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume
   of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering
   wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and
   supercell potential. 

   As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater
   convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms
   producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the
   post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS
   Valley by early morning Friday.

   ..Grams.. 04/15/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z