SPC Guidance
[PR]:3hr Calibrated Thunderstorm
[PR]:3hr Calibrated Severe Thunderstorm
[PR]:3hr Calibrated Conditional Severe Tstm
[PR]:3hr Dry Thunderstorm Potential
[PR]:3hr Calibrated Tstm >=100 CG Strikes
[PR]:12hr Calibrated Thunderstorm
[PR]:12hr Calibrated Severe Thunderstorm
[PR]:24hr Calibrated Thunderstorm
[PR]:24hr Calibrated Severe Thunderstorm
[PR]:3Hr New Snow on Roads (rel to normal)
[PR]:6Hr Calibrated New Snow on Roads
Overview
[MN]:500MB Height~Absolute_Vorticity
[MN]:500MB Height~Wind~Temp~Isotach
[MNSD]:500MB_Height
[SP]:500MB_Height_5460m
[SP]:500MB_Height_5580m
[SP]:500MB_Height_5700m
[SP]:500MB_Height_5820m
[MNSD]:500MB_Temp
[SP]:500MB_Temp_-15C
[SP]:500MB_Temp_-20C
[SP]:500MB_Temp_-25C
[MNSD]:700MB_Height
[MNSD]:700MB_Temp
[SP]:700MB_Temp_+10C
[SP]:700MB_Temp_+15C
[MN]:850MB_Height~Wind~Temp~Isotach
[MNSD]:850MB_Temp
[MN]:PMSL~Thickness~10m_Wind
[MNSD]:Sea_Level_Pres
[SP]:PMSL_Low_Centers
[SP]:PMSL_High_Centers
[MAX]:2m_Temp
[MN]:2m_Temp
[MN]:700-500_UVV~3hr_QPF
Moisture
[MN]:2M_Dewpoint(F)
[MDXN]:2M_DewPoint
[MNSD]:2_Meter_DewPoint
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_>=50F
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_>=55F
[PR]:2m_Dewpoint_>=60F
[PR]:2m_Dewpoint_>=65F
[PR]:2m_Dewpoint_>=70F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_50F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_55F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_60F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_65F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_70F
[MN]:Precipitable_Water
[MDXN]:Precipitable_Water
[SP]:Precipitable_Water_1.0in
[SP]:Precipitable_Water_1.5in
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_LCL<=750m
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_LCL<=1000m
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_LCL<=1250m
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_LCL<=1500m
[MNSD]:850MB_DewPoint
[MNSD]:700MB_DewPoint
Instability
[MDXN]:Surface_L
[MN]:Surface_LI
[PR]:Surface_LI_<=0
[PR]:Surface_LI_<=-2
[PR]:Surface_LI_<=-4
[PR]:Surface_LI_<=-6
[MDXN]:Surface_CAPE
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=250
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=500
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=1000
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=2000
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=3000
[MDXN]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE_>=500
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE_>=1000
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE_>=2000
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE_>=3000
[MDXN]:Most_Unstable_CAPE
[MN]:MUCAPE_and_MULPL(MB_AGL)
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=50
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=100
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=250
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=500
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=1000
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=2000
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=3000
[SP]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_100
[SP]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_250
[SP]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_500
[SP]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_1000
[MDXN]:Downdraft_CAPE
[PR]:Downdraft_CAPE_>=1000
[PR]:Downdraft_CAPE_>=1500
[PR]:Downdraft_CAPE_>=2000
[PR]:Equilibrium_Level_Temp_<=-15C
[PR]:Equilibrium_Lvl_Temp_<=-20C
[PR]:Cloud_Physics_Thunder_Param_>=1
[PR]:700-500MB_Lapse_rate_>=7.0
[PR]:700-500MB_Lapse_rate_>=8.0
[PR]:MPV_900-650mb_<=0.05
Kinematic
[MN]:Vector_Wind_10m
[MN]:Vector_Wind_300mb
[MN]:Vector_Wind_500mb
[MN]:Vector_Wind_700mb
[MN]:Vector_Wind_850mb
[MNSD]:300MB_Wind_Speed
[MDXN]:300MB_Wind_Speed
[MNSD]:500MB_Wind_Speed
[MDXN]:500MB_Wind_Speed
[SP]:500MB_Wind_Speed_50kts
[SP]:500MB_Wind_Speed_70kts
[MDXN]:850MB_Wind_Speed
[MDXN]:0-6KM_Bulk_Shear
[PR]:0-6km_Bulk_Shear_>=30kts
[PR]:0-6km_Bulk_Shear_>=40kts
[PR]:0-6km_Bulk_Shear_>=50kts
[SP]:0-6KM_Bulk_Shear_40KTS
[MDXN]:Effective_Bulk_Shear
[PR]:Effective_Bulk_Shear_>=30kts
[PR]:Effective_Bulk_Shear_>=40kts
[PR]:Effective_Bulk_Shear_>=50kts
[SP]:Effective_Bulk_Shear_40KTS
[MDXN]:0-1KM_Helicity
[PR]:1KM_Helicity_>=50m2s-2
[PR]:1KM_Helicity_>=100m2s-2
[PR]:1KM_Helicity_>=150m2s-2
[SP]:0-1KM_Helicity_100m2s-2
[SP]:0-1KM_Helicity_200m2s-2
[MDXN]:0-3KM_Helicity
[PR]:3KM_Helicity_>=100m2s-2
[PR]:3KM_Helicity_>=200m2s-2
[PR]:3KM_Helicity_>=300m2s-2
[SP]:0-3KM_Helicity_150m2s-2
[SP]:0-3KM_Helicity_300m2s-2
Lift
[PR]:700mb_Omega_<=-3
[PR]:700mb_Omega_<=-6
[PR]:700mb_Omega_<=-9
[MN]:Frontogenesis_900-650mb_layer
[MN]:Frontogenesis_and_MPV_850mb
[MN]:Frontogenesis_and_MPV_700mb
[PR]:Front_900-650mb_layer>=0.1K
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_850mb
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_700mb
>[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_900-650mb
Precip
[MAX]:3hr_total_pcpn
[MDXN]:3hr_total_pcpn
[MN]:700-500_UVV~3hr_mean_QPF
[MD]:700-500_UVV~3hr_median_QPF
[PM]:700-500_UVV~3hr_prob_match_QPF
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.01in
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.05in
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.10in
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.25in
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.50in
[PR]:CPTP_>=1_and_3hr_pcpn_>=0.01in
[SP]:3hr_total_pcpn_0.01in
[SP]:3hr_total_pcpn_0.10in
[MDXN]:3hr_convective_pcpn
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.01in
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.05in
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.10in
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.25in
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.50in
[SP]:3hr_convective_pcpn_0.01in
[SP]:3hr_convective_pcpn_0.10in
[MAX]:6hr_total_pcpn
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=0.01in
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=0.10in
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=0.25in
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=0.50in
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=1.00in
[MAX]:12hr_total_pcpn
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=0.01in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=0.10in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=0.25in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=0.50in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=1.00in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=2.00in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=3.00in
[MAX]:24hr_total_pcpn
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=0.01in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=0.10in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=0.25in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=0.50in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=1.00in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=2.00in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=3.00in
Severe
[MDXN]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe
[PR]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_>=10000
[PR]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_>=20000
[PR]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_>=40000
[PR]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_>=60000
[SP]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_10000
[SP]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_20000
[PR]:MUCAPE>=500&0-6Shr>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=500&0-6Shr>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&0-6Shr>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&0-6Shr>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=2000&0-6Shr>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=2000&0-6Shr>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=500&EShear>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=500&EShear>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&EShear>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&EShear>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=2000&EShear>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=2000&EShear>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=3000&EShear>=20&C03I>=.01
[MN]:Supercell_Composite(0-500mb_bulk_shear)
[MN]:Supercell_Composite(effective_bulk_shear)
[MDXN]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter
[PR]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_>=1
[PR]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_>=3
[PR]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_>=6
[SP]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_1
[SP]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_3
[PR]:Supercell_Parameter_>=1_&_pcpn_>=0.01
[MDXN]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter
[PR]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_>=1
[PR]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_>=3
[PR]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_>=5
[PR]:Significant_Tornado_Ingredients
[SP]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_1
[SP]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_2
[MDXN]:Derecho_Parameter
[PR]:Derecho_Parameter_>=_1
[PR]:Derecho_Parameter_>=_3
[PR]:Derecho_Parameter_>=_5
[PR]:Derecho_Param_>=1_&_C03I_>=0.01
[SP]:Derecho_Parameter_1
Winter
[MNSD]:850MB_Temp
[SP]:850MB_Temp_0C_Isotherm
[PR]:850MB_Temp_<=-2C
[PR]:850MB_Temp_<=0C
[PR]:850MB_Temp_<=+2C
[MNSD]:700MB_Temp
[PR]:1000-500MB_Thickness_<=5280m
[PR]:1000-500MB_Thickness_<=5340m
[PR]:1000-500MB_Thickness_<=5400m
[MAX]:3hr_Snowfall(inches)
[MN]:3hr_Snowfall(inches)
[PM]:3hr_Snowfall(inches)
[MN]:6hr_Snowfall(inches)
[MN]:12hr_Snowfall(inches)
[MN]:Snowfall_Ratio(Snow:Liquid_Eqv)
[PR]:Snowfall_Rate_>=1in(perhr)
[PR]:Snowfall_Rate_>=2in(perhr)
[PR]:Snowfall_Rate_>=3in(perhr)
[PR]:Freezing_Rain_Rate_>=0.05_in(per3hr)
[PR]:Freezing_Rain_lasting_>=3hrs
[PR]:Rain_Change_to_Freezing_Rain
[PR]:Freezing_Rain_Change_to_Rain
[MDXN]:Dendritic_Growth_Zone_Depth(mb)
[PR]:Dendritic_Growth_Zone_Depth_>=50mb
[PR]:Dendritic_Growth_Zone_Depth_>=100mb
[MN]:Precipitation_Type_(NCEP_Algorithm)
[MN]:Precipitation_Type_(SPC_Czys_Algorithm)
[PR]:Probability_Rain(All_members)
[CPR]:Cond_Prob_Rain(Given_member_precips)
[PR]:Probability_Snow(All_members)
[CPR]:Cond_Prob_Snow(Given_member_precips)
[PR]:Probability_Ice_Pellets(All_members)
[CPR]:Cond_Prob_IP(Given_member_precips)
[PR]:Probability_Freezing_Rain(All_members)
[CPR]:Cond_Prob_ZR(Given_member_precips)
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_850mb
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_700mb
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_900-650mb
Fire
[MN]:2m_Temp
[PR]:2m_Temp_>=60F
[MAX]:2m_DewPoint
[MIN]:2m_DewPoint
[MDXN]:2m_DewPoint
[MN]:2m_DewPoint
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_<=15F
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_<=25F
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_<=35F
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_<=45F
[MIN]:2m_RH
[MNSD]:2m_RH
[PR]:RH_<=10%
[PR]:RH_<=15%
[PR]:RH_<=20%
[PR]:RH_<=25%
[PR]:RH_<=30%
[PR]:Tot_3hr_Pcpn_<=0.01in
[PR]:Tot_3hr_Pcpn_<=0.05in
[PR]:Tot_3hr_Pcpn_<=0.10in
[PR]:Tot_12hr_Pcpn_<=0.01in
[PR]:Tot_12hr_Pcpn_<=0.10in
[MAX]:10m_Wind_Speed
[MN]:10m_Wind_Speed
[PR]:10m_Wind_Speed_>=10mph
[PR]:10m_Wind_Speed_>=20mph
[PR]:10m_Wind_Speed_>=30mph
[MAX]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index
[MDXN]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index
[MN]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index
[PR]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index_>=50
[PR]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index_>=60
[PR]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index_>=70
[MDXN]:Haines_Index
[PR]:Haines_Index_>=5
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=15
[PR]:WSPD>=15&RH<=15&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=15&RH<=20&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=15&RH<=25&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=15&RH<=30&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=10&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=15&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=20&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=30&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=35&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=30&RH<=10&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=30&RH<=15&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=30&RH<=20&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
Aviation
[MAX]:Convective_Cloud_Top(CCT)
[MD]:Convective_Cloud_Top(CCT)
[MN]:Convective_Cloud_Top(CCT)
[PR]:Probability_CCT_<=31KFT
[PR]:Probability_CCT_31-37KFT
[PR]:Probability_CCT_>37KFT
[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_CCT_<=31KFT
[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_CCT_31-37KFT
[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_CCT_>37KFT
Links
SPC Home
SPC SREF Legacy Version
SPC SREF Overview
New SPC Interactive Plumes
SPC SREF Online Case Studies
SPC Operational Forecasts
EMC SREF
EMC GEFS
EMC Model Forecasts
FRAME
SPEED
img/sec
DIR
Rock
DWELL
Dwell
sec
STEP
On/Off
*To see the change in
SREF_H5__
for a specific time over past model runs, click the image.
*Click here to see keyboard commands.
Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Products
Active Field:
SREF_H5__
Active Model Run:
latest
*
New
Plumes Page
Most Recent Model Run
2gov/fhourz
  in through
Previous Runs:
20oaa.gov/z
202www.spcz
202lic/fhoz
202c/fhourz
2023230410z
2024112103z
**Official SPC Forecasts**
Day 1 Conv. Outlook
Day 2 Conv. Outlook
Day 3 Conv. Outlook
Day 1 Fire Outlook
Day 2 Fire Outlook
Map Overlays
CWAs
Cities
Interstates
ARTCC Regions