Dec 21, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 21 08:22:43 UTC 2024 (20241221 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20241221 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20241221 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 210822

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

   ...Discussion...
   A shortwave trough is expected to amplify over the Rockies and High
   Plains in advance of a more prominent upper trough approaching the
   California coast Monday night. Modest low-level moisture return will
   occur across Texas in advance of a southeastward-moving cold front
   crossing the southern High Plains and parts of Texas. The potential
   for elevated thunderstorms should increase Monday night particularly
   across North Texas and south-central/eastern Oklahoma to the
   ArkLaTex. This will be as forcing for ascent and elevated moisture
   transport increase regionally. Severe thunderstorms are not
   currently expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

   ..Guyer.. 12/21/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z