SPC AC 170717

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
   SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and
   perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday
   night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

   ...Synopsis...
   Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will
   prevail across much of Canada through this period.  More amplified,
   but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern
   mid- to subtropical latitudes.  The latter regime is likely to
   include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners. 
   Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast
   Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations
   pivoting around its periphery.  

   Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build
   across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle
   Mississippi Valley.  In lower levels, cool surface ridging is
   forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
   Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
   Gulf Coast.

   Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is
   likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow
   will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and 
   contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly
   cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow.

   ...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas...
   With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the
   Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de
   Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico,
   may remain relatively weak on Saturday.  This, coupled with further
   weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly
   conducive to severe storm development.  However, with some
   additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool
   mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000
   J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing
   favorable shear profiles for supercells.  One short wave
   perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the
   mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly
   after peak destabilization.  However, there remains sizable spread
   within the model output concerning this feature.

   ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z