Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 211250
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning into early
afternoon across parts of coastal Oregon and northern California.
...Coastal OR/northern CA...
A potent mid to upper-level shortwave trough will move ashore the
northern CA/OR coast and continue northeastward into the southern
Canadian Rockies/northern Rockies vicinity through late tonight.
Weak thunderstorm activity embedded within a warm-air advection rain
shield will continue moving into the coastal range mountains this
morning before outrunning the inland penetration of scant
instability. The corridor of thunderstorms will probably shift
north along the coast into OR by midday into the early afternoon in
association with the mid-level cold pocket encroaching on the OR
coast. Elsewhere, quiescent weather or stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorm development over the remainder of the
contiguous United States.
..Smith/Goss.. 12/21/2024
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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