Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jul 10, 2024

Updated: Wed Jul 10 22:04:02 UTC 2024

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the
   California coast will begin moving northward along the western
   periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin.
   Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate
   northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances
   of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into
   the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium
   range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave
   trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the
   occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday
   through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the
   West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions.

   ...Northwest...
   Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern
   Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some
   uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds,
   though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there
   may be locally critical conditions. 

   By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears
   possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern
   Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of
   the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue
   into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though
   uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or
   addition of dry thunder areas. 

   There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing
   chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant
   disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of
   the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities
   at this time. 

   ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah...
   Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of
   monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on
   D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be
   localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly
   receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely.

   ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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